Experienced coaches see fatigue. We want to measure what they already recognize.
Traditional statistics say a player averages 32 minutes. The more useful question is when inside those minutes his effectiveness actually starts to change — and what a staff should do about it.
Composite effectiveness begins declining after roughly seven consecutive minutes of court time, and falls sharply after minute eight.
Holds effectiveness through roughly eleven consecutive minutes — the longest durable stint on the roster.
Decline begins around minute six, driven almost entirely by defensive rebounding and foul discipline rather than shooting.
Same total minutes. Different shape. Different outcome.
An observation is only useful once it becomes a decision a staff can make on Tuesday and see on Wednesday.
Composite effectiveness begins declining after roughly seven consecutive minutes of court time, and falls sharply after minute eight.
His second-half effectiveness is strongest in shorter stretches, not in longer runs. The current 32 minutes are being spent inefficiently, not overspent.
Consider 5-6 minute shifts rather than extended runs. Same total minutes, projected +2.1 points of offensive value per game in the prototype model.
- eFG% drops from 55% (minutes 1-7 of a stint) to 43% (minute 8+)
- Turnover rate rises 11.8% → 17.2% in the same split
- Closeout distance covered falls ~0.6 yards on tracked possessions
- Defensive FG% allowed rises 44% → 52% after minute eight
2H 09:44Minute 9 closeout — Late closeout, gives up a corner three — the fatigue pattern on tape.
1H 15:02Minute 3 switch attack — Same action, fresh legs, gets to the rim.
Sample clip references — the prototype does not derive these from real video yet
The same analysis on Caleb Ruiz explains late-game foul trouble as a stint-length problem rather than a technique problem, and identifies Omar Bennett as the player who can bridge both substitution windows without losing switchability.
Where the player is, where we want him, what the evidence says, what's next.
Each rostered player carries
- Current strengths and weaknesses
- One priority skill per development block
- Statistical trends and skill progression
- Film examples and before/after comparisons
- Coach notes from staff
- Usage patterns and effective-minutes analysis
Movement observations, handled carefully
Video and performance data can surface observable changes — movement mechanics, shooting mechanics, reduced explosiveness, workload changes, fatigue indicators. When something changes against a player's own baseline, the product's job is to flag it for human review by coaching, performance and medical staff.
It is not a diagnostic tool and it does not predict injuries. We will not position it as one.